Henrietta Treyz on tariffs, AI power, and why New Orleans wins anyway
KW New Orleans hosted Henrietta Treyz, Director of Economic Policy Research at Veda Partners, for a fast, candid tour of the forces shaping 4Q 2025: a federal shutdown standoff, volatile markets, expanding tariffs, and the AI power crunch. Her take—for agents, investors, and neighbors—was clear: the macro matters locally, and New Orleans has real reasons to be optimistic.
“You basically can’t be an investor unless you understand what’s happening in D.C.” —Henrietta Treyz
Why it matters
Shutdown shock: As of Oct. 1, the U.S. government is shut down amid a fight over extending enhanced ACA subsidies—delays to economic data and agency operations can raise market volatility and dampen consumer confidence.
Tariffs touch housing: New 2025 tariff actions (via IEEPA and Section 232) could lift costs on materials and household goods—think cabinets, fixtures, and some steel/aluminum derivatives—feeding construction budgets and remodeling decisions.
AI’s ‘power bill’ moment: Surging data-center demand is straining regional grids and lifting electricity costs in several U.S. hubs—an input cost for everything from multifamily utilities to industrial underwriting.
By the numbers
Mag 7 concentration: The “Magnificent Seven” account for roughly one-third of S&P 500 market cap as of mid-Aug., underscoring market narrowness even as broader returns wobble in 2025.
2025 wobble: After outsized gains in 2023–24, the cohort slid notably to start 2025—another sign of churn beneath headline indexes.
Fed outlook: The Fed’s Sept. Summary of Economic Projections guides the rate path from here—key for mortgages as unemployment and inflation projections evolve.
State of play (plain English)
Shutdown mechanics: SEC and other market regulators are furloughing most staff during the lapse in funding; some data releases could be delayed—fuel for short-term volatility.
Tariff creep: CBP and Commerce updates show broadened Section 232 coverage for steel/aluminum derivatives this year, while separate executive actions under IEEPA have also been used—complex, but directionally inflationary for select imports.
AI build-out: Data centers = big construction now, fewer permanent jobs later, plus pressure on electricity pricing and grid interconnections. (For Louisiana, that’s both challenge and opportunity.)
“Investors love volatility… and right now, we have extreme volatility for a whole host of reasons.” —Henrietta Treyz
Between the lines (NOLA angle)
Real projects, real jobs: Meta picked Northeast Louisiana for a $10B AI-optimized data center—construction employment today, tech infrastructure tomorrow. That signals national-scale capital flows into the state.
Power + planning: With AI driving up regional electricity demand elsewhere, Louisiana’s grid planning, incentives, and site-readiness will shape which parishes win the next wave.
Consumer vibes: Surveys show households remain focused on prices—agents should speak plainly about monthly payment math, renovation cost realities, and rate pathways.
What we’re watching
Shutdown off-ramp: Whether Congress trades a short-term funding patch for progress on ACA subsidies—and when agencies resume normal data releases.
Tariff timeline & scope: Additional implementing notices (IEEPA/232), carve-outs, and judicial/administrative developments that could change cost inputs for housing and consumer goods.
Fed data dependency: Labor-market cooling vs. inflation progress—both feed into rate-cut odds that directly affect mortgage affordability.
For your clients (talking points you can use)
Rates & resilience: The Fed’s latest projections keep the door open to policy easing if the labor market softens—translate that into monthly-payment scenarios and lock/float strategies. f
Cost clarity: Explain how select import tariffs can hit cabinets, fixtures, and metals—then price renovation budgets with contingencies.
Local momentum: Point to Louisiana’s data-center pipeline as a medium-term jobs and tax-base positive—evidence that national innovation capital is choosing our backyard.
The vibe check
Henrietta’s message to New Orleanians landed with heart:
“It’s better than everywhere. The schools are phenomenal… the people are better. The food is absolutely better… I love it here, I can’t quit it.” —Henrietta TreyzThat’s exactly why KW New Orleans keeps hosting national-caliber voices: this is where leaders talk real estate—candidly about the hard stuff, and hopefully about what’s next.
The bottom line
Macro noise, local signal: Yes, the shutdown and tariffs add uncertainty. But the Fed’s path, Louisiana’s AI build-out, and buyers’ focus on payments—not just prices—create real opportunities for skilled agents.
If you’re an agent elsewhere: Bring your leadership—and your clients—to a brokerage that treats economics as a core competency. KW New Orleans is building market share by being the forum for straight-talk and smart strategy.
Disclosure: This post is for general information and recruiting; it’s not legal, tax, or investment advice. For specific questions about a transaction, renovation budgeting, or financing, consult a licensed real estate professional, lender, or attorney.
This article was originally published on our website, which can be accessed here.